IOWA RESULTS

DATA STATUS

LIVE COUNTING

0% REPORTING

TIMELINE SYNC

CandidateVotes

Kamala Harris

Dem

0.0%

Donald Trump

Rep

0.0%

Chase Oliver

Lib

0.0%

Est. Vote In0%

Total Ballots0

Projected Winner6 EV

Waiting...

AnalysisState Intelligence Brief

Iowa continued its rightward drift, delivering a comfortable double-digit victory for the Republican ticket.

Primary Variance Drivers

Social issues identified by voters as their "Most Important Issue"

State of Democracy

Priority Intensity

35%

Vote Split:

80%

18%

Economy

Priority Intensity

32%

Vote Split:

19%

79%

Abortion

Priority Intensity

14%

Vote Split:

76%

22%

Electoral Votes6

2020 MarginR+8.2

2024 MarginWaiting...

Reporting Districts

State Intelligence: Media Monitor

Scanning Regional Media Sources...

Live Feed • IA • POLITICS

Data Sources and Verification

Analysis Methodology and Background Reading

Official 2024 Results (AP)Associated Press State-by-State Counts Official 2020 Results (FEC)Federal Election Commission Verified PDF Pew ResearchThe Changing Face of the U.S. Electorate Cook Political Report2024 Electoral College Ratings & Deep Dive FiveThirtyEightHow the 2024 Election Forecast Works ReutersKey dates, issues and candidates: The Road to 270 Sabato's Crystal BallThe 2024 Presidential Election Ratings US Census BureauRecord High Turnout in 2020: Demographic Breakdown AP NewsWhy these 7 states will decide the 2024 election Politico MagazineThe Demographic Shifts Redefining 2024 NPR PoliticsWho are the Swing Voters in 2024?Wall Street JournalHow Inflation and Immigration Shape the 2024 Vote NY TimesTracking the 2024 Presidential Candidates Brookings InstituteThe 2024 Election Will Turn on Turnout RealClearPoliticsGeneral Election: Trump vs. Harris Polling Average CNN PoliticsThe Battleground: What the data tells us about 2024 FEC Official2020 Official Presidential General Election Results

Historical margins and turnout baselines are derived from official 2020 General Election results as archived by the Federal Election Commission.

FEC Official Archives →

Real-time projections utilize composite polling averages and district-level reporting simulation models provided by Reuters/Ipsos public datasets.

Reuters Election Center →